Times’ forecasting shows dramatic shift of ’16 election

chance-of-winning

The New York Times’ live election night coverage featured a wealth of information without the babbling talking heads found on network television.

Among the more interesting Times’ graphics was the above, which showed minute-by-minute forecasts of the 2016 presidential race as the evening progressed.

As is apparent, between 9 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, a sea change began to take place in the fortunes of both candidates, at least in the eyes of NY Times’ forecasters.

Hillary Clinton, who the Times had as a huge favorite at 7 p.m., saw her fortunes slip quickly in the hour between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m., although the election would remain undecided for several more hours.

It’s unclear as to why Times‘ forecasters decided shortly before 9:30 p.m. that Donald Trump had suddenly become the front runner. Whatever the reason, as wrong as they were in the beginning, they shortly went all-in on Trump.

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5 thoughts on “Times’ forecasting shows dramatic shift of ’16 election

  1. A fascinating evening…I was listening to the BBC radio coverage and it was clear that Clinton was in the proverbial quite early on if you concentrated on the results and the time taken to declare them rather than the commentators.
    The hit of the evening for me was when one of the presenters talked to a chap at the Trump HQ. Said chap moaned about ballot irregularities and the presenter – you could almost see the wide eyes from his tone of voice – said ‘but you’re questioning democracy’!

    • Yes, the “system” is all good and well when your candidate is winning, but when things don’t go your way, it’s either evidence of fraud or a dire need for change.

      Bottom line: We’ve, unfortunately, elected worse individuals. We will likely at some point, elect worse individuals.

      The nation doesn’t end when someone less than perfect gets elected. There are millions of dissatisfied voters in any national election. But to read the national media, you’d think we were on the brink of a second Kristallnacht.

      I’m not a particular fan of Trump, but I am a fan of republican government, with the peaceful handover of power, voters’ preferences being respected and our system of checks and balances.

      • An election was held within the rules….the outcome doesn’t suit those who appoint themselves as mouthpieces for the nation….brace yourself for weeks of rending of garments and abuse of Trump voters.
        Mark you, as a knock on effect, property prices in Costa Rica might rise as the non deplorables leave the U.S……wait until they see some of our lot!

      • Indeed, the same lot that took Brexit supporters to task is now going to go after Trump voters. It must be tough to be burdened with the gift of knowing what’s best for all humanity.

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